An Inflection Point in North American Pulp Wood Sourcing

The wholesale transfer of timber resources to stand alone timber companies in recent years will lead to an entirely different dynamic in pulp wood sourcing simultaneous to an another apparent rising phenomenon—the "biorefinery."

I say this because it is my suspicion that the motivation of the buyers of timber resources, especially at the rumored and reported prices, is not for their use in pulp mills. It appears that they may have bought these resources for components with potential high-value real estate conversion opportunities. By this I mean areas on the edges of cities towards which suburbanization is likely soon, or rural areas ripe for gentrification.

If I am right, this poses one potential problem and one potential opportunity for the pulp and paper industry. The problem is this: in the short term these owners may have little interest in sourcing pulp wood to pulp mills and may not want to be bothered with this business. Development of the high value land is far more interesting and important.

Later, the potential is in the "waste land" left over—-that land that cannot be converted to high value. It may just be possible in a few years for someone to acquire this pulp wood-producing land for pennies on the dollar, just so the timberland companies can be rid of the carrying costs and liabilities.